Saturday, July 19, 2008

More Bad News for Barack

When I think of how Sen. Barack Obama has been doing in many recent polls, I am reminded of a lyric from an old song...

"Well they call it Stormy Monday, but Tuesday's just as bad."

That is to say, if yesterday's Gallup poll results weren't bad enough news for Obama, today's poll won't give him much to cheer about either. While he maintains a numerical lead of Sen. John McCain (45 percent to 43 percent), the result is within the margin of error - as it was yesterday - and the race remains in a statistical dead heat.

Which brings us to the other bit of not so good news for Obama. Another Gallup factoid informs us that six of the last nine July leaders in "competitive" races lost the November election.

Gallup "bottom lines" it thusly:

Barack Obama has consistently led John McCain in Gallup Poll Daily tracking for the past month, but by an average of only three points among registered voters. His largest lead since July 1 has been six points, although in the latest Gallup report, based on interviews conducted July 3 and July 5-6, it is just four points, 47 percent to 43 percent.

History provides no clear indication of the relationship between this narrow margin and the eventual outcome in November. The pattern that occurred in several presidential years suggests that the convention period could be crucial for either cementing Obama's slight advantage or establishing McCain as the new front-runner... If neither convention succeeds in transforming the election, the race could very well remain close right through the home stretch.

The foregoing is Gallupspeak for "If the Dumbo-eared guy isn't leading by 10 or more points in July, he's toast in November."

Oh and by the way, Gallup also lets us know that more Americans believe John McCain "can handle the responsibilities of Commander-in-Chief of the military" versus Obama (80 percent to 55 percent, respectively.)

Four More Years!!

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