Friday, July 18, 2008

The "N" of the Road

If this Gallup poll is any indication, the various N-gates ("Nutgate" and "N-wordgate") may be taking their respective tolls on Barack Obama's candidacy.

Thus sayest Gallup:

Obama still holds a slight edge, but with just 45 percent of registered voters saying they would vote for him in November, versus 44 percent for McCain. McCain's current support, based on Gallup Poll Daily tracking conducted July 15-17, falls at the upper end of the 42 percent to 44 percent range seen for him since late June.

The dip in support for Obama to 45 percent from 46 percent in Thursday's report and from 47 percent earlier this week (when he held a four percentage point lead over McCain) is not statistically significant. It will be important to see whether today's figures are maintained for several days before it can be determined that the race has narrowed to a virtual tie. (Emphasis added.)
Gallup's interpretation notwithstanding, it is evident that since peaking at 48 percent on July 10th, Obama's lead has been declining, while John McCain has held steady at 44 percent. In any event, with a margin of error of 2 percent, it appears that the race is already in a dead heat.

To add a bit more perspective, despite his inability to generate any enthusiasm among core conservative constituencies, his being outspent and out-organized, and the simple fact that he is as old as dirt, John McCain (or Jesse Jackson) has fought The Great Himself to a draw.

Four More Years!!

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